NPT Research · Essay

The founder's tax problem.

For most founders, the largest single cost they will ever face is the capital gains tax on their equity, and planning for it rarely starts until liquidity has already arrived.

July 2026

Founders are meticulous about equity. They negotiate every point of dilution, model each round's ownership math, and generally know their fully diluted percentage from memory. The tax on eventually selling that equity, which is likely the largest single cost they will ever face, usually receives no planning at all until an acquirer or a banker forces the issue.

The gap is understandable. For years the equity was worth nothing, and planning around a hypothetical fortune feels premature. But equity tax planning has a property most financial decisions do not. The most effective tools require years of lead time, so by the time the problem feels concrete, most of the options have already expired.

Two common outcomes

The first is the fast exit. An acquisition closes on the acquirer's timeline, and the proceeds arrive within months of the letter of intent. A founder selling $20M of low-basis stock in a high-tax state pays roughly 37% of the gain, about $7.4M, in combined federal and state tax, because there was no time to do anything else.1

The second is slower and generally more damaging. The company goes public, the lockup expires, and the founder does not sell, partly out of loyalty and optics, partly because selling means the tax bill, and partly because the stock has only ever gone up. Newly public stocks decline often, and a founder holding through a 50% or greater drawdown in the asset that represents nearly all of their net worth learns that the tax they were avoiding was the cheaper of the two costs.

Both outcomes have the same cause, which is that no tax capacity was in place when liquidity arrived, so every path involved either paying the full tax immediately or not selling at all.

What lead time buys

Founders do have one dedicated provision, qualified small business stock, and for shares that qualify it is the first thing to understand, since it can exclude $10 million or more of gain per issuer outright.2 But QSBS is capped, not every company qualifies, and for founders whose stakes have grown well beyond the exclusion, it covers the first portion of the problem and leaves the rest.

For the remainder, the most effective tool is lead time, and a tax-aware long/short program is what converts lead time into tax capacity. The program pairs its long holdings with a short book, which gives it something to harvest in every kind of market. Rising markets leave losses on the short side, falling markets on the long side, and the program realizes them continuously while staying fully invested.3 Those losses accumulate year after year into a loss base that does not expire. In our simulations of the strategy, run from 2016 through the middle of this year, the losses come to 20% to 30% of portfolio value in a typical year. The cumulative total passes 100% of invested capital around the third year, reaches roughly twice the capital by the fifth year, and roughly three times by the tenth.4

Against a founder's timeline, those figures are the argument for starting early. A program started five years before liquidity, funded with even a fraction of the eventual proceeds, can arrive at the event holding accumulated losses of roughly twice the program's value. A three-year head start accumulates losses on the order of the program itself. Every dollar of losses absorbs a dollar of gain at the sale, deferring tax that would otherwise be paid immediately. The same strategy started after the event still works, but it builds the loss base after the gains are already being realized, and the first years of selling get little help.

Exhibit 1Two founders, same exit. The loss base at the liquidity event depends on when the program started.Source: NPT, illustrative
0%100%200%300%012345678910YearsCumulative realized losses · % of program capitalLiquidity eventarrives at the event with losses of roughly twice the programstarts at the event, first sales taxed in full~300%started five years early~180%started at the event
Note. Illustrative pacing consistent with the NinePointTwo simulations cited in the text (cumulative net losses passing 100% of invested capital around the third year, roughly twice invested capital by the fifth, and roughly three times by the tenth). Both founders run the same program; only the start date differs. Actual loss generation varies with market conditions and implementation, and losses offset capital gains, not ordinary income beyond a small annual allowance.

Where the capital comes from

The usual objection is that founders have little liquid capital before an exit. In practice, the capital rarely needs to come from nowhere. Secondary sales and tender offers have become routine at growth-stage companies, and proceeds from a Series C or D secondary, which most founders leave in an index fund or treasuries, are well suited to funding a loss-generation program. So are accumulated savings, prior exits, or the first tranche sold at IPO. The program does not need to match the size of the founder's stake. It needs to match the size of what they realistically intend to sell in the first few years.

And selling some is generally the right decision. The venture business is built on power laws, but a founder's personal balance sheet should not be built the same way. Selling enough to secure a family's finances changes nothing about a founder's commitment to the company. The founders who regret their equity decisions are rarely the ones who sold a sensible fraction. They are the ones who sold nothing, or who paid taxes they had years of warning to plan for.

The window

That window is when the problem is cheapest to address. The strategy compounds with lead time, and lead time is the one input that cannot be added later, so the sensible time to start building the loss base is when the outcome starts looking probable rather than when the proceeds are scheduled.

Notes
  1. The 37% combined rate reflects 23.8% federal (20% long-term capital gains rate plus 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax) and approximately 13% for a high-income taxpayer in a high-tax state such as California or New York.
  2. Section 1202. For stock issued on or before July 4, 2025, up to $10 million of gain per issuer (or ten times basis, if greater) can be excluded after a five-year hold. Stock issued after that date gets a $15 million cap and a tiered exclusion that starts at three years, under the 2025 tax act. The qualification rules are detailed enough that founders should raise them with a tax advisor early.
  3. The common structures are labeled 130/30 or 150/50. A 150/50 portfolio holds $150 long and $50 short per $100 of capital, keeping net market exposure at 100%.
  4. NinePointTwo simulations of tax-aware long/short portfolios run at 4% to 6% tracking error to the Russell 1000, January 2016 through June 2026. Loss generation scales with active risk, so lower-risk implementations harvest more slowly. Simulated results have inherent limitations and do not reflect actual trading; actual outcomes vary with market conditions, portfolio size, and implementation.
Important
Disclosures

Regulatory status

NinePointTwo Capital LLC (“NPT”) is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and Commodity Pool Operator (CPO). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

Trading in futures contracts and other leveraged derivatives carries a high degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and derivatives is substantial; leverage inherent in these instruments can magnify trading losses as well as gains. Investors should only consider investing in such strategies when the gearing effect of leverage and the risks of loss are fully understood. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

About this essay

This essay is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, fund, or investment vehicle. Such offers are made only via a formal Private Placement Memorandum or Investment Management Agreement. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other advice, nor should it be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. NPT is not a law firm or a public accounting firm.

No tax or legal advice

While NPT's tax-aware strategies are designed to generate realized losses for tax-mitigation purposes, the effectiveness of these strategies depends on individual taxpayer circumstances and evolving tax laws. NPT does not guarantee any specific tax outcome or amount of loss harvesting. Clients and prospective clients should consult with their personal tax and legal professionals regarding their specific situation before implementing any strategy discussed herein.

Hypothetical and simulated results

The loss-generation figures in this essay are derived from NinePointTwo simulations of tax-aware long/short portfolios managed to 4% and 6% tracking error against the Russell 1000 index, covering January 2016 through June 2026 and including modeled transaction and financing costs. Loss figures represent net realized losses (realized losses net of realized gains) as a percentage of simulated portfolio value, aggregated from monthly data. These are simulated results, not the performance of any actual client account.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH, BUT NOT ALL, ARE DESCRIBED HEREIN. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY FUND OR ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN HEREIN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY REALIZED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Risks of tax-aware strategies (not exhaustive)

Pre-tax returns of a tax-aware strategy may meaningfully underperform expectations. Realized losses may be smaller than expected, and their value depends on an individual investor's circumstances, including marginal tax rates and the availability of capital gains to offset. Capital losses offset capital gains, not ordinary income beyond a small annual allowance. Gain deferral is not gain forgiveness, and deferred gains may be recognized on liquidation or withdrawal, even after pre-tax losses. Long/short portfolios involve leverage, shorting, and financing costs that index funds do not. The potential tax benefit of any strategy may be lessened or eliminated prospectively by changes in tax law, or retrospectively by an IRS challenge under current law.

Data and forward-looking statements

The data and analysis contained herein are based in part on theoretical and model portfolios derived from internal and third-party academic research. The information has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, NPT does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information's accuracy or completeness. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment, which may differ materially. The views expressed reflect the current views as of the date hereof, and NPT does not undertake to advise you of any changes in the views expressed. It should not be assumed that NPT will make investment recommendations in the future that are consistent with the views expressed herein. Charts, graphs, and illustrative examples provided herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as the primary basis for any investment decision. Forward-looking statements and projections are subject to change without notice.

Geographic availability

This essay is intended only for qualified investors and interested parties residing in jurisdictions in which NPT is qualified to provide investment advisory services. NPT and its affiliates may hold positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed herein.

NinePointTwo Capital

A Los Angeles-based investment management firm. NPT Research publishes periodically and is distributed to clients and qualified prospective investors.

NPT Research
Published · July 2026
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