NPT Research · Essay

The concentrated stock dilemma.

A single stock that dominates an investor's net worth is one of the most common problems in wealth management, and the conventional tools each solve only a piece of it.

June 2026

The pattern is familiar to anyone who works with founders, early employees, or long-term investors. A single position, often acquired at a very low cost basis, has grown to represent half or more of a family's net worth. The textbook answer is to diversify, but the textbook answer ignores the tax. Selling a $10M position with negligible basis generates roughly 37% in combined federal and state tax for a high earner in a high-tax state, about $3.7M, plus the loss of everything those dollars would have compounded into over the following decades.1

Faced with a choice between concentrated risk and an immediate seven-figure tax bill, most investors choose neither. They hold the position, revisit the question periodically, and take no action. Doing nothing appears to be the conservative option. It is actually a large, unhedged bet that one particular company will keep performing indefinitely.

Why holding is riskier than it feels

An index fund is self-correcting in a way a single position is not. When a company inside the index declines, its weight shrinks and stronger companies replace it, which is why an index can compound for a century while most of its original members disappear. A single stock has no such mechanism. The history of individual companies, including dominant and seemingly permanent ones, is largely a history of eventual disruption, and most investors can name a company once considered untouchable that later lost half its value and never recovered it.

There is also an asymmetry that matters more than the statistics. Once a position is large enough to secure a family's future, the remaining upside is worth less than the equivalent downside costs. If the position doubles again, little changes. If it falls 60%, a great deal changes. That is a statement about utility more than a market forecast, and it argues for reducing the position at almost any reasonable price.

The conventional tools

The wealth management industry offers a familiar set of tools, and each addresses a piece of the problem while leaving the core intact.

Selling outright removes the risk and maximizes the tax. Exchange funds pool the stock with other investors' concentrated positions, which diversifies without a sale, but they generally require multi-year lockups, charge meaningful fees, and leave the investor fully exposed to equities throughout.

Collars can limit the downside, but hedging costs money, tax rules restrict how tightly a position can be hedged without triggering a constructive sale, and the embedded tax bill is still waiting at the end. Borrowing against the position raises cash without a sale, but it layers leverage onto an already concentrated portfolio. Charitable vehicles work well for the portion an investor intends to give away, but they do nothing for the portion the investor intends to keep.

None of the conventional tools create the capacity to actually sell the position down. That is the specific gap tax-aware long/short strategies address.

Building the capacity to sell

A tax-aware long/short strategy adds a model-driven book of short positions on top of a diversified long portfolio.2 In any given year some longs fall and some shorts rise, and each of those positions can be sold and realized as a loss. In our simulations over the last ten and a half years of market data, a 150/50 portfolio realizes net losses of 20% to 30% of portfolio value in a typical year, with cumulative losses passing 100% of invested capital around the third year.3

Realized losses carry forward indefinitely, so they accumulate into a loss base that can be applied against future gains. Against a concentrated position, that base is what makes a sale affordable. Each dollar of accumulated losses allows a dollar of appreciated stock to be sold with the gain fully offset, deferring the tax that made diversification appear too expensive.

Consider an investor with a $10M concentrated position and $5M of other liquid assets. The $5M funds a tax-aware long/short program. At the loss generation rates our simulations suggest, the program accumulates something on the order of $5M in realized losses within roughly three years. The investor can then sell half the concentrated position with no current tax due, and the proceeds move into the diversified program, where they generate further losses for the next stage. A decision that was unworkable as a single transaction becomes a manageable multi-year plan.

Exhibit 1A $10M position sold down in stages against the loss base.Source: NPT, illustrative
$0$5M$10M$15M0123456YearsPortfolio composition · $sold $5M against accumulated losses, no current taxDiversified programConcentrated positionAccumulated losses available
Note. Illustrative sequence, not a projection. A $10M concentrated position with $5M of other liquid assets funding a tax-aware long/short program. The loss base accumulates at a pace consistent with the NinePointTwo simulations cited in the text and is applied at each sale, so each stage of the concentrated stock is sold with the gain offset. The second sale arrives sooner because the program doubles in size after the first. Market movement, program returns, and taxes at final liquidation are excluded for clarity.

There is a further benefit while the program runs. The program capital is a diversified investment seeking returns of its own, so the family's overall risk profile begins improving from the first year, well before the position is fully unwound. The strategy diversifies, pursues return, and builds tax capacity at the same time, which is why it fits this problem better than tools that do only one of the three.

What it doesn't do

The approach has limits, and they are worth stating plainly. The losses defer tax rather than eliminate it. The deferred gains come due if the diversified portfolio is eventually liquidated, although deferral itself has value the research literature has documented for decades,4 and positions held until death currently pass to heirs with the basis reset. Building a meaningful loss base takes time, so the strategy suits investors who can commit to a multi-year plan. It involves shorting, leverage, and tracking error against the index, which require institutional infrastructure and a manager with genuine long/short experience. And the portfolio has to make sense as an investment on its own merits, because tax law's economic substance doctrine disallows arrangements whose only purpose is their tax treatment.

The takeaway

The concentrated stock problem persists because both obvious answers are unattractive. Selling surrenders a substantial share of the position to taxes, and holding leaves a family's financial security dependent on one company's next decade. Tax-aware long/short strategies offer a third answer, which is to build the tax capacity to sell over several years and then sell the position down in stages. The investors with regrets tend to be the ones who waited for a better option that never arrived.

Notes
  1. The 37% combined rate reflects 23.8% federal (20% long-term capital gains rate plus 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax) and approximately 13% for a high-income taxpayer in a high-tax state such as California or New York.
  2. The common structures are labeled 130/30 or 150/50. A 150/50 portfolio holds $150 long and $50 short per $100 of capital, keeping net market exposure at 100%.
  3. NinePointTwo simulations of tax-aware long/short portfolios run at 4% to 6% tracking error to the Russell 1000, January 2016 through June 2026. Loss generation scales with active risk, so lower-risk implementations harvest more slowly. Simulated results have inherent limitations and do not reflect actual trading; actual outcomes vary with market conditions, portfolio size, and implementation.
  4. The foundational result is Constantinides (1983), “Capital Market Equilibrium with Personal Tax,” Econometrica. A dollar of deferred tax stays invested and compounding in the meantime, and the advantage survives even a fully taxed liquidation at the end.
Important
Disclosures

Regulatory status

NinePointTwo Capital LLC (“NPT”) is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and Commodity Pool Operator (CPO). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

Trading in futures contracts and other leveraged derivatives carries a high degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and derivatives is substantial; leverage inherent in these instruments can magnify trading losses as well as gains. Investors should only consider investing in such strategies when the gearing effect of leverage and the risks of loss are fully understood. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

About this essay

This essay is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, fund, or investment vehicle. Such offers are made only via a formal Private Placement Memorandum or Investment Management Agreement. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other advice, nor should it be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. NPT is not a law firm or a public accounting firm.

No tax or legal advice

While NPT's tax-aware strategies are designed to generate realized losses for tax-mitigation purposes, the effectiveness of these strategies depends on individual taxpayer circumstances and evolving tax laws. NPT does not guarantee any specific tax outcome or amount of loss harvesting. Clients and prospective clients should consult with their personal tax and legal professionals regarding their specific situation before implementing any strategy discussed herein.

Hypothetical and simulated results

The loss-generation figures in this essay are derived from NinePointTwo simulations of tax-aware long/short portfolios managed to 4% and 6% tracking error against the Russell 1000 index, covering January 2016 through June 2026 and including modeled transaction and financing costs. Loss figures represent net realized losses (realized losses net of realized gains) as a percentage of simulated portfolio value, aggregated from monthly data. These are simulated results, not the performance of any actual client account. Exhibit 1 is an illustrative sequence, not a projection. Its dollar amounts, sell-down schedule, and loss pacing are chosen to illustrate the concept, and it excludes market movement, program returns, and taxes at final liquidation. Actual loss generation, amounts, timing, and investment returns will differ.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH, BUT NOT ALL, ARE DESCRIBED HEREIN. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY FUND OR ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN HEREIN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY REALIZED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Risks of tax-aware strategies (not exhaustive)

Pre-tax returns of a tax-aware strategy may meaningfully underperform expectations, and negative alpha would erode both growth and loss generation. Realized losses may be smaller than the illustrations suggest, and their value depends on an individual investor's circumstances, including marginal tax rates and the availability of capital gains to offset. Capital losses offset capital gains, not ordinary income beyond a small annual allowance. Gain deferral is not gain forgiveness, and deferred gains may be recognized on liquidation or withdrawal, even after pre-tax losses. Long/short portfolios involve leverage, shorting, financing and transaction costs, tracking error, and operational complexity that index funds do not. The potential tax benefit of any strategy may be lessened or eliminated prospectively by changes in tax law, or retrospectively by an IRS challenge under current law.

Data and forward-looking statements

The data and analysis contained herein are based in part on theoretical and model portfolios derived from internal and third-party academic research. The information has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, NPT does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information's accuracy or completeness. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment, which may differ materially. The views expressed reflect the current views as of the date hereof, and NPT does not undertake to advise you of any changes in the views expressed. It should not be assumed that NPT will make investment recommendations in the future that are consistent with the views expressed herein. Charts, graphs, and illustrative examples provided herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as the primary basis for any investment decision. Forward-looking statements and projections are subject to change without notice.

Geographic availability

This essay is intended only for qualified investors and interested parties residing in jurisdictions in which NPT is qualified to provide investment advisory services. NPT and its affiliates may hold positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed herein.

NinePointTwo Capital

A Los Angeles-based investment management firm. NPT Research publishes periodically and is distributed to clients and qualified prospective investors.

NPT Research
Published · June 2026
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